USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

USD/CAD – 1.0800

USD/CAD – Wave v of c may extend towards 1.0531

Despite early marginal fall to 1.0591, subsequent rebound to 1.0996 from there suggests a temporary low has possibly been formed there but only a daily close above said resistance would add credence to this view and bring test of resistance at 1.1126. Looking ahead, it is necessary to see a rise above this level to confirm the wave v as well as c leg of wave B has ended and further gain to 1.1292 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1725 to 1.0591) would follow. Above there would confirm and extend rise to 1.1403 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2716 to 1.0632) but resistance at 1.1725 should hold.

Below said support would extend recent decline to 1.0531 (61.8% projection of the beginning of wave i to iii measuring from wave iv), however, as this is the final wave v of c leg as well as the entire wave B from 1.3066, downside should be limited to support at 1.0310/15.

To recap our preferred count is that the A of (B) rally from 0.9059 low (7 Nov 2007) unfolded into an impulsive wave with i:0.9059-1.0380, ii ended at 0.9819, wave iii at 1.3019 followed by a triangle wave iv at 1.2026, then wave v formed a top at 1.3066 and also ended the wave A. Wave B is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii: 1.0784 and wave iv ended at 1.1725 and wave v has either ended at 1.0591 or may extend one more fall to aforesaid downside targets.

Longer term - The selloff from 1.6194 (21 Jan 2002) to 0.9059 (07 Nov 2007) is viewed as (A) wave which is a 5-waver as labeled on the monthly chart as below, the subsequently rally is labeled as (B) with impulsive A leg of (B) ended at 1.3066, wave B of (B) is unfolding which should be limited to 1.0590 and 1.0000/05 (76.4% retracement of wave A from 0.9059 to 1.3066) should remain intact.