AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9280; (P) 0.9336; (R1) 0.9401; More

AUD/USD's rise from 0.9031 resumes today by taking out 0.9401 resistance and reaches as high as 0.9418 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 0.9348 minor support holds. As discussed before, correction from 0.9496 should have completed with three waves down to 0.8953. The current rally from there is expected to extend to retest 0.9496 high. On the downside, below 0.9348 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But further rally is still in favor as long as pull back is contained above 0.9271 support.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.9496 has likely completed with three wave down to 0.8953. Also, with 0.8873 cluster support still holds, rise from 0.8512 is still expected to extend further. Decisive break of 0.9496 will confirm that medium term up trend has resumed for next upside target of parity. However, below 0.9205 support will argue that rise from 0.8953 has completed and correction/consolidation from 0.9496 is still in progress. In such case, focus will be turned back to 0.8873 support.

On the downside, sustained trading below 0.8873 structural support will open up a few bearish possibilities. On the one hand, 0.9496 could represent an important medium term top. On the other hand, rise from 0.8512 could just be part of a wider range consolidation that started at 0.9398, with one more falling leg to follow. In either case, deeper decline should be seen to 0.8512 support first.

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