AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9276; (P) 0.9347; (R1) 0.9405; More

AUD/USD fall from 0.9541 was contained at 0.9290 and rebounds after drawing support from the lower channel support. Touching of 0.9373 minor resistance suggests that an intraday low is in place and bias is now shifted to mildly on the upside. With AUD/USD still staying inside the channel, rally from 0.8953 should still be in progress and another rise should be seen to retest 0.9541 first.

However, below 0.9290 will put focus back to 0.9271 support and which open up the chance of a short term bearish scenario. Further break of 0.9271 will indicate that rise from 0.9031, as well as that from 0.8953 has possibly both completed. In such case deeper decline should be seen.

In the bigger picture, outlook is tricky as AUD/USD fails to sustain above 0.9469 high despite making new 24 year high at 0.9541. Also, upside momentum is so far unconvincing with bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD & RSI too. as well as weekly MACD and RSI too. Focus should now be on the short term rising trend line (0.7675 to 0.8512, now at 0.9031). At long as this trend line support holds, recent up trend should still be in force. Such rally is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still expected to extend further to next medium term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.8008 from 0.6773 at 1.0008 which overlaps with parity.

However, break of the mentioned trend line support will argue that price actions from 0.7675 was probably in form of a diagonal triangle which was already completed at 0.9541. This will also argue that rally from 0.7015 has also completed with five waves up to 0.9541 too. In other words, 0.9541 should be an important medium term top in such case and deeper decline should then be seen at least to 0.8870 medium term resistance turned support.

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