AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9535; (P) 0.9586; (R1) 0.9633; More

AUD/USD's fall from 0.9849 extended further to as low as 0.9539 before recovering mildly. Further decline could still be seen as long as 0.9668 minor resistance holds, towards 161.8% projection of 0.9849 to 0.9677 from 0.9792 at 0.9514. Though, such decline from 0.9849 is still treated as correction to rise from 0.9475 only and is expected to be contained above this support and bring rally resumption. Above 0.9668 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 0.9792 resistance will indicate recent rally has likely resumed for 1.0000 psychological resistance.

In the bigger picture, the whole rally from 0.8512 is still in progress. Also, note that the break of near term trend line resistance and break out of bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI are both reaffirming the underlying strength in AUD/USD. Regardless of the structure, such rally is treated as part of the long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) and is still expected to extend further to next medium term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.8008 from 0.6773 at 1.0008 which overlaps with parity. On the downside, break of 0.9475 support is needed to be the first signal that a short term top is formed. Otherwise, recent uptrend is still expected to extend further.

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