AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9393; (P) 0.9460; (R1) 0.9510; More

AUD/USD recovers mildly after reaching as low as 0.9411 but intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 0.9495 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, break of 0.9475 support indicates that rise from 0.9327 should have already completed at 0.9849 already. Further decline is now expected towards this support first. On the upside, above 0.9495 will indicate that an intraday low is in place and bring recovery towards 0.9607 resistance. But upside should be limited there and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, the sharp fall after making a new 25 year high at 0.9849 has now pushed AUD/USD through short term rising trend line support (now at 0.9560) as well as 0.9475 support. It firstly indicates that rise from 0.9327 has completed. Secondly, it argues that the rise from 0.7675 has already completed as a diagonal triangle pattern with 0.9849 as a false break. This is supported by bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. In other words, AUD/USD could have topped out from a medium term angle and much deeper fall could then be seen to 0.7675 and 0.8870 support zone, with 0.8008 key medium term support in between. Break of 0.9327 support will add more credence to this case. Meanwhile,on the upside, a break above 0.9792 resistance is now needed to revive the near term bullish case.

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