AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8532; (P) 0.8584; (R1) 0.8638; More

AUD/USD's recovery from 0.8493 continues today and is now pressing 0.8689 minor resistance and 4 hours 55 EMA. An intraday low should be in place with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line again. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Further break of 0.8812 resistance will confirm that a short term bottom is in place after meeting mentioned 0.8512 cluster support target. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.8493 at 0.9011 or above but upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement at 0.9331 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8512 cluster support will indicate decline from 0.9849 has resumed and bring deeper decline to test long term trend line support and 0.80/81 level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD has completed a diagonal triangle pattern that started at 0.7675, with 0.9849 as a false break with bearish divergence conditions in daily and weekly MACD and RSI. Break of 55 weeks EMA reaffirmed that 0.9849 is an important top. Fall from 0.9849 has now dived into medium term support zone of 0.7675 and 0.8870, with 0.8008 key medium term support in between as expected. Firm break of 0.8512 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.7675 to 0.9849 at 0.8505) will put long term trend line support (0.4773 (01 low), 0.7015, now at 0.8105) into focus.

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