AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8261; (P) 0.8332; (R1) 0.8429; More

AUD/USD recovers mildly after reaching as low s 0.8233 and touching of 0.8393 minor resistance, with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, indicates that an intraday low is in place. Intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment and further consolidation could be seen. But consolidation should be brief a long as 0.8689 resistance holds. Below 0.8233 will indicate recent decline has resumed for long term rising trend line support at 0.8113. However, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD as background, break of 0.8698 will indicate that a short term bottom is finally in place and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top is at least in place at 0.9849 with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Initial downside target of 0.8512 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.7675 to 0.9849 at 0.8505) is already met. The main question now is whether long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) has completed too. Bearish divergence condition in monthly MACD and RSI serve as an important signal of a long term top. Though, focus should still be on the long term rising trend line (0.4773, 0.7015, now at 0.8113). Firm break will confirm that such long term is finished and bring further medium term fall to 0.6773/0.8008 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8698 will signal that a short term bottom is in place and bring larger scale corrective rebound before staging another fall.

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