AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6893; (P) 0.7314; (R1) 0.7640; More

AUD/USD recovers mildly after fall from 0.8519 extended sharply lower to 0.6988. Though, consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 0.7418 minor resistance holds. Recent fall is expected to resume sooner rather than later to next medium term target of 61.8% retracement of 0.4773 to 0.9849 at 0.6712. On the upside, above 0.7418 will indicate that an short term bottom is in place and bring stronger recovery. But upside is still expected to be limited by 0.7816 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, a long term top is in place at 0.9849 with bearish divergence condition in monthly MACD and RSI. Considering the corrective three wave structure of the multi year up trend from 0.4773 to 0.9849, it could represents a correction to multi decade down trend or part of consolidation. Thus, the current fall should at least extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.4773 to 0.9849 at 0.6712. On the upside, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8519 resistance holds even in case of stronger than expected rebound.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box