AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6600; (P) 0.6866; (R1) 0.7103; More

AUD/USD's break of 0.6655 minor support indicates that recovery from 0.6445 has completed at 0.7135. At this point, intraday bias is lipped back the downside for retesting 0.6445 low. Break will indicate that recent decline from 0.8519 has resumed. On the upside, above 0.6891 minor resistance will suggest that consolidation from 0.6445 is still in progress. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 0.7361 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, a long term top is in place at 0.9849 with bearish divergence condition in monthly MACD and RSI. Considering the corrective three wave structure of the multi year up trend from 0.4773 to 0.9849, it could represents a correction to multi decade down trend or part of consolidation. 61.8% retracement of 0.4773 to 0.9849 at 0.6712 is already taken out. Next medium term target is 76.4% retracement level at 0.5971. On the upside, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7802 support turned resistance holds even in case of stronger than expected rebound.

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