AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6210; (P) 0.6546; (R1) 0.6765; More

AUD/USD recovers strongly from 0.6330 today and an intraday low is in place with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. Further recovery could now be seen. But still, there is not confirmation of a short term bottom yet. Fall from 0.8519 is still expected to resume after brief consolidation and break of 0.6330 will bring decline to next downside target of 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 to 0.9849 at 0.6712 at 0.5971. On the upside, note that mild bullish convergence condition is being displayed in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Above 0.7135 will confirm that a short term bottom is in place stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the strength of the fall from 0.9849 strongly suggests that it's developing into an impulsive fall in at least the same degree as the up trend from 0.4773 to 0.9849. The current interpretation is that first wave of such fall has completed at 0.7802. Second wave correction has completed at 0.8519 and fall from there should represents the third wave decline. In other words, we're probably in the middle of such decline only. Any interim correction should be limited below 0.7802 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption.

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