AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6628; (P) 0.6770; (R1) 0.7047; More

AUD/USD's fall from 0.7237 was contained at 0.6495 and recovered. Intraday outlook is turned mixed for the moment. ON the upside, above 0.7076 will indicate that correction from 0.6330 is still in progress for another rise to above 0.7237. Still, upside is expected to be limited below 0.7674/83 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8519 to 0.6330 at 0.7683, 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6330 at 0.7674) and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.6495 will bring retest of 0.6330 low and break will confirm that recent down trend has resumed for next long term fibonacci support at 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 to 0.9849 at 0.5971.

In the bigger picture, the strength of the fall from 0.9849 strongly suggests that it's developing into an impulsive fall in at least the same degree as the up trend from 0.4773 to 0.9849. The current interpretation is that first wave of such fall has completed at 0.7802. Second wave correction has completed at 0.8519 and fall from there should represents the third wave decline. In other words, we're probably in the middle of such decline only. Any interim correction should be limited below 0.7802 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. Sustained break of 0.7802 is needed to invalidate this view and indicate that a medium term bottom is formed.

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