AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6741; (P) 0.6875; (R1) 0.7020; More

Choppy consolidation from 0.6330 is still in progress today and will likely continue further. Above 0.7076 will argue that rebound from 0.6330 is extending further to 0.7237 and above. However, upside is expected to be limited below 0.7674/83 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8519 to 0.6330 at 0.7683, 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6330 at 0.7674) and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.6495 will bring retest of 0.6330 low and break will confirm that recent down trend has resumed for next long term fibonacci support at 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 to 0.9849 at 0.5971.

In the bigger picture, the strength of the fall from 0.9849 strongly suggests that it's developing into an impulsive fall in at least the same degree as the up trend from 0.4773 to 0.9849. The current interpretation is that first wave of such fall has completed at 0.7802. Second wave correction has completed at 0.8519 and fall from there should represents the third wave decline. In other words, AUD/USD is probably in the middle of such decline only. Any interim correction should be limited below 0.7802 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption.

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