AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6411; (P) 0.6603; (R1) 0.6868; More

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.6008 extends further to as high as 0.6887 today. Break of 0.6760 resistance argues that a medium term bottom is already in place with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. At this moment, further rise is still expected as long as 0.6529 minor support holds, targeting 0.7237 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6529 will indicate that rebound from 0.6008 has finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, break of 0.6760 argues that whole fall from 0.9849 has completed the five wave sequence already, with the fifth wave ended at 0.6008 after failing 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 to 0.9849 at 0.5971. Stronger rebound could bow be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.7475 or above. Nevertheless, note that the impulsive nature of the fall from 0.9849 to 0.6008 indicate that price actions from 0.6008 is developing into correction/consolidation in a larger down trend only. The long term down trend is still expected to resume after completing the consolidation.

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