AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6570; (P) 0.6776; (R1) 0.6902; More

AUD/USD continues to stay in established range of 0.6543 and 0.7014 today. Outlook remains neutral for the moment. With 0.6543 support intact, there is no confirmation of completion of rebound from 0.6008 yet. Further rally cannot be ruled out and break of 0.7014 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.7475. On the downside, though, break of 0.6543 will confirm that rebound 0.6008 has completed and will bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 0.6008 indicates that whole fall from 0.9849 has likely completed the five wave sequence already, with the fifth wave ended at 0.6008. Stronger rebound could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.7475 or above. Nevertheless, note that the impulsive nature of the fall from 0.9849 to 0.6008 indicate that price actions from 0.6008 is developing into correction/consolidation in a larger down trend only. The long term down trend is still expected to resume after completing the consolidation. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6008 will indicate that the down trend from 0.9849 has resumed for at least another five wave medium term decline.

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