AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6443; (P) 0.6599; (R1) 0.6724; More

AUD/USD's break of 0.6543 indicates that rebound from 0.6008 has likely completed at 0.7014 already. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 0.6758 minor resistance holds and retest of 0.6008 low should be seen. On the upside, above 0.6758 will turn intraday outlook neutral first and further break of 0.7014 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.7475.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 0.6008 indicates that whole fall from 0.9849 has likely completed the five wave sequence already, with the fifth wave ended at 0.6008. As long as this support holds, further consolidation could still be seen with risk of another rise to test 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.7475. Nevertheless, note that the impulsive nature of the fall from 0.9849 to 0.6008 indicate that price actions from 0.6008 is developing into correction/consolidation in a larger down trend only. The long term down trend is still expected to resume after completing the consolidation. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6008 will indicate that the down trend from 0.9849 has resumed for at least another five wave medium term decline.

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