AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7839; (P) 0.7953; (R1) 0.8047; More

While AUD/USD is still staying in tight range above 0.7826, further downside is still mildly in favor with 0.8067 minor resistance intact. As mentioned before, we still slightly favoring the case that a short term top is formed. Firm break of 0.7826 will confirm the double top formation and will bring deeper decline to 0.7449/7710 support zone next. On the upside, though, above 0.8067 will dampen this bearish view and flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 0.9236 resistance resistance will indicate that recent rally is still in progress, but after all, focus will remain on reversal signal as AUD/USD approaches 0.8519 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD price actions from 0.6008 are treated as correction to down trend from 0.9849 only and has already met target zone of 0.7802/0.8519. A break below 0.7449 support will starts to argue that such consolidation has completed and will turn focus to 0.6988 for confirmation. Break there will bring retest of 0.6008 low. On the upside, another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, but after all, even in case of another rise, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as AUD/USD approaches 0.8519.

However, note that sustained break of 0.8519 resistance will seriously dampen this view and argue that the sharp decline from 0.9849 to 0.6008 was indeed a correction to long term rally from 0.4773 to 0.9849 only. And in such case, stronger medium rise could then be seen to retest 0.9849 high.

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