AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7986; (P) 0.8051; (R1) 0.8123; More.

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.7849 was limited at 0.8117 and break of 0.7972 minor support suggests that an intraday top is formed. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.7826/7849 support zone will revive the case that AUD/USD has indeed topped out earlier at 0.8262. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 0.7449 support next. On the upside above 0.8117 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 0.8236/8262 resistance zone. Note recent price actions from 0.8262 could be developing into sideway consolidation only. Break of this resistance will bring resumption of of rise from 0.6284. Nevertheless, upside momentum should diminish as AUD/USD approaches 61.8% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.8382 and bring reversal finally.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD price actions from 0.6008 are treated as correction to down trend from 0.9849 only and has already met target zone of 0.7802/0.8519. Focus remains on reversal signal as AUD/USD stays in this range. While another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance should be seen as AUD/USD approaches 0.8519 resistance and bring reversal eventually. ON the downside, break of 0.7826 support will now be an important signal that whole correction from 0.6008 has completed and will turn focus to 0.7267 key support for confirmation.

However, note that sustained break of 0.8519 resistance will seriously dampen this view and argue that the sharp decline from 0.9849 to 0.6008 was indeed a correction to long term rally from 0.4773 to 0.9849 only. And in such case, stronger medium rise could then be seen to retest 0.9849 high.

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