AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8011; (P) 0.8054; (R1) 0.8124; More.

AUD/USD's rise from 0.7788 resumes today and reaches as high as 0.8145 so far. Also, break of 0.8117 resistance confirms that corrective fall from 0.8236 has completed. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 0.7983 minor support holds and retest of 0.8236/8262 resistance zone should be seen. Break will confirm that recent rally has resumed for 61.8% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.8382. But after all, AUD/USD should start continue to lose momentum on next rise and finally bring reversal after meeting 0.8382. On the downside, below 0.7983 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and put 0.7788 support back into focus.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD price actions from 0.6008 are treated as correction to down trend from 0.9849 only and has already met target zone of 0.7802/0.8519. Focus remains on reversal signal as AUD/USD stays in this range. While another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance should be seen as AUD/USD approaches 0.8519 resistance and bring reversal eventually. On the downside, break of 0.7788 support will now be an important signal that whole correction from 0.6008 has completed and will turn focus to 0.7267 key support for confirmation.

However, note that sustained break of 0.8519 resistance will seriously dampen this view and argue that the sharp decline from 0.9849 to 0.6008 was indeed a correction to long term rally from 0.4773 to 0.9849 only. And in such case, stronger medium rise could then be seen to retest 0.9849 high.

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