AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8558; (P) 0.8692; (R1) 0.8779; More

AUD/USD's break of 0.8734 support confirms that whole decline from 0.9404 high has resumed. AUD/USD fell to as low as 0.8607 so far, just inch above medium term fibonacci level at 23.6% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.8603. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and sustained trading below 0.8603 will set the stage for 0.8262 medium term resistance turned support next. On the upside, above 0.8727 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 0.8915 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8734 support revived the case that AUD/USD has already topped out in medium term at 0.9404, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper correction should now be seen towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone. On the upside, break of 0.9327 is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and another fall is in favor even in case of strong rebound.

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