AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8601; (P) 0.8659; (R1) 0.8742; More

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, an intraday low is likely in place at 0.8577 after drawing support from 23.6% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.8603. Bias is turned neutral and some consolidations could be seen first. However, recovery should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9327 to 0.8577 at 0.8864 and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8577 and sustained trading below 0.8603 fibonacci level will set the stage further deeper fall towards 0.8262 medium term resistance turned support next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8734 support revived the case that AUD/USD has already topped out in medium term at 0.9404, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper correction should now be seen towards 0.7702/0.8262 support zone, with 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.7706. On the upside, break of 0.9327 is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and another fall is in favor even in case of strong rebound.

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