AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9122; (P) 0.9157; (R1) 0.9189; More

AUD/USD lose some upside moment with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line again but after all, further rally is in favor as long as 0.9053 minor support holds. Rise from 0.8577 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 0.8577 to 0.9070 from 0.8802 at 0.9295 next. On the downside, break of 0.9053 support will be the first signal of topping and will turn focus back to 0.8802 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.8975) suggests that correction from 0.9404 has completed with three waves down to 0.8577 after hitting medium term rising channel support as well as 23.6% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404. In other words, whole rally from 0.6008 might be set to resume for another high above 0.9404. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008 with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside, break of 0.8802 support is needed to be the first signal to revive the case that AUD/USD has already topped out. Otherwise, we'll remain cautiously bullish in AUD/USD.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box