AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8993; (P) 0.9011; (R1) 0.9037; More

AUD/USD's sharp decline from 0.9353 was contained at 0.8953 and subsequent rebound, with 4 hours MACD recovered above signal line, indicates that an intraday low is in place. Intraday bias is flipped to the upside and further rebound could be seen to 0.9090 resistance or above. Though, further decline is still in favor as long as upside is limited by 0.9167 resistance. Below 0.8980 will indicate corrective fall from 0.9496 has possibly resumed for 0.8873 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is mixed after AUD/USD failed to take out 200% projection of 0.6773 to 0.7992 from 0.7015 at 0.9453 decisively. Focus is now on 0.8873 support. Strong rebound from there, followed by break of 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9165) will indicate that fall from 0.9496 is merely a correction to rise from 0.8512 and should have completed. Retest of this 0.9496 high should be seen and break will confirm medium term up trend has resumed.

However, firm break of 0.8873 structural support will open up a few bearish possibilities. On the one hand, 0.9496 could represent an important medium term top. On the other hand, rise from 0.8512 could just be part of a wider range consolidation that started at 0.9398, with one more falling leg to follow. In either case, deeper decline should be seen to 0.8512 support first.

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