AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9322; (P) 0.9371; (R1) 0.9451; More

AUD/USD's rally extends strongly today. Break of 0.9505 resistance reaffirms the case that price actions from 0.9505 to 0.9291, though deep, was just correction to rally from 0.9275 only. On the other hand, correction from 0.9541 should have completed at 0.9275 already and rise from there should present resumption of rally from 0.8953. In short, intraday bias is now the upside and rise from 0.9291 should extend to above 0.9541 high to 61.8% projection of 0.8512 to 0.0.9496 from 0.8953 at 0.9561 first. On the downside, below 0.9442 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But retreat should be contained well above 0.9291 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, as long as short term rising trend line (0.7675 to 0.8512, now at 0.9130) holds, recent up trend should still be in force. Such rally is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still expected to extend further to next medium term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.8008 from 0.6773 at 1.0008 which overlaps with parity.

However, break of the mentioned trend line support will argue that price actions from 0.7675 was probably in form of a diagonal triangle which has already completed. This will also argue that rally from 0.7015 has also completed with five waves up too. In other words, an important medium term top is in place and, deeper decline should then be seen at least to 0.8870 medium term resistance turned support.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box