AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7986; (P) 0.8051; (R1) 0.8123; More.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.8117 extends further to as low as 0.7901 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 0.7989 minor resistance holds. FIrm break of 0.7826/7849 support zone will revive the case that AUD/USD has indeed topped out earlier at 0.8262. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 161.8% projection of 0.8236 to 0.7849 from 0.8117 at 0.7491. On the upside, above 0.7989 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 0.8117 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD price actions from 0.6008 are treated as correction to down trend from 0.9849 only and has already met target zone of 0.7802/0.8519. Focus remains on reversal signal as AUD/USD stays in this range. While another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance should be seen as AUD/USD approaches 0.8519 resistance and bring reversal eventually. On the downside, break of 0.7826 support will now be an important signal that whole correction from 0.6008 has completed and will turn focus to 0.7267 key support for confirmation.

However, note that sustained break of 0.8519 resistance will seriously dampen this view and argue that the sharp decline from 0.9849 to 0.6008 was indeed a correction to long term rally from 0.4773 to 0.9849 only. And in such case, stronger medium rise could then be seen to retest 0.9849 high.

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