AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8035; (P) 0.8072; (R1) 0.8120; More.

AUD/USD's break of 0.7983 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.7788 has completed at 0.8154 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for a test of 0.7788 support first. It's still possibly that price actions from 0.8236 are corrective in nature and focus will be on 0.7710 cluster support (100% projection of 0.8236 to 0.7788 from 0.8154 at 0.7706). Strong rebound from there, followed by break of 0.8154 resistance again, will indicate that the medium term term rebound is still in progress and will progress extend further to 61.8% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.8382. But after all, AUD/USD should continue to lose momentum on next rise and finally bring reversal after meeting 0.8382. However, note that sustained break of 0.7710 will strongly suggest that AUD/USD has indeed topped out at 0.8262 already and will target next key support at 0.7267.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD price actions from 0.6008 are treated as correction to down trend from 0.9849 only and has already met target zone of 0.7802/0.8519. Focus remains on reversal signal as AUD/USD stays in this range. While another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance should be seen as AUD/USD approaches 0.8519 resistance and bring reversal eventually. On the downside, break of 0.7710 support will now be an important signal that whole correction from 0.6008 has completed and will turn focus to 0.7267 key support for confirmation.

However, note that sustained break of 0.8519 resistance will seriously dampen this view and argue that the sharp decline from 0.9849 to 0.6008 was indeed a correction to long term rally from 0.4773 to 0.9849 only. And in such case, stronger medium rise could then be seen to retest 0.9849 high.

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