AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD made new 25 year high of 0.9667 last week but failed to sustain there and retreated sharply. Though, pull back should have completed at 0.9511. Having said that, initial bias remains on the up side this week as long as 0.9584 minor support holds. As discussed before, sustained trading above 0.9653 key resistance will confirm resumption of medium term up trend, targeting 1.0000 psychological resistance. Though, below 0.9582 will argue that AUD/USD is still bounded in sideway consolidation. While another fall cannot be ruled out before completing the consolidation, downside is still expected to be contained by 0.9492 support.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9291 support intact, followed by break of 0.9653 key medium term resistance, the whole up trend from 0.8512 could have resumed. Regardless of the structure, such rally is treated as part of the long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) and is still expected to extend further to next medium term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.8008 from 0.6773 at 1.0008 which overlaps with parity.

However, the upside momentum since making a low at 0.7675 is still far from being convincing. A break below 0.9327 support will be the first alert that rise from 0.9512, as well as that from 0.7675 has completed. This will set the stage for deeper decline back into 0.7675, 0.8870 support zone, with key long term support of 0.8008 lying in between.

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