AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD's rally from 0.8577 extended further to as high as 0.9193 last week. While upside momentum is diminishing, another rise will remain in favor as long as 0.9053 minor support holds. Current rally is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 0.8577 to 0.9070 from 0.8802 at 0.9295 next. However, break of 0.9053 will argue that a short term top is formed and should bring deeper pull back towards 0.8802 support instead.

In the bigger picture, consolidation from 0.9404 has possibly completed with three waves down to 0.8577 after hitting the channel support. Medium term rise from 0.6008 is possibly resuming. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008 with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside, break of 0.8802 support is needed to be the first signal to revive the case that AUD/USD has already topped out. Otherwise, we'll remain cautiously bullish in AUD/USD.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

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