Action Insight Archives |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 14 12 08:11 GMT
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD's strong rebound last week suggests that a short term bottom is in place at 1.0225. As long as 1.0331 minor support holds, stronger rise is mildly in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.0852 to 1.0225 at 1.0612. Break of 1.0636 will indicate that choppy rebound from 0.9387 is still in progress for another high above 1.0852 before completion. Meanwhile, failure below 1.0636 should extend the decline from 1.0852 towards 0.9663 support. After all, consolidation pattern from 1.1079 is still in progress and another fall is anticipated to below parity after rebound from 0.9387 is confirmed to have finished.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Price actions from 1.1079 are treated as consolidation in the up trend only. In any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
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