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USD/CHF Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis |
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Canadlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 09 10 08:08 GMT |
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USD/CHF Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis
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Last Candlesticks pattern |
Time of formation |
Trend bias |
| Weekly |
N/A |
N/A |
Sideways |
| Daily |
Doji |
4 Aug 2009 |
Sideways |
The greenback surged as expected and easily met our indicated upside target at 1.0696 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1967 to 0.9910) and 1.0800 (exactly last week's high), confirming our view that medium term decline from 1.2298 has ended last year at 0.9910 and upside bias remains for stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.0900 but reckon resistance at 1.1026-29 (previous resistance and the current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) would hold from here.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.0580/85 is likely, reckon support at 1.0509 (previous resistance turned support) would hold and bring another rally later. Only a break of said support would suggest top has possibly been formed and risk test of Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0464) but it is necessary to see a weekly close below this line to confirm and bring stronger retreat towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0375) which is likely to hold from here.
On the daily chart, although the greenback retreated briefly to 1.0497 last week, renewed buying interest quickly emerged right at the Tenkan-Sen and rallied again, met our indicated upside targets at 1.0696 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1967 to 0.9910) and 1.0729 (100% projection of 0.9910 to 1.0509 measuring from 1.0130). Expect the Tenkan-Sen to continue to track recent upmove and extend the rise from 2009 low of 0.9910 towards resistance at 1.0885 but reckon resistance at 1.1026 would hold and bring retreat later.
On the downside, expect initial consolidation but as suggested above pullback should be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0622) and bring further gain to aforesaid upside target. Only a daily close below this line would suggest a temporary top has possibly been formed and risk 1.0497-1.0509 support but break there is needed to confirm, then stronger retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0464) and then towards 1.0365/70. however, only breach of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4083 and this would also penetrate resistance at 1.4027) would confirm, then stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.4218 would follow later.
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