USD/JPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis
|
Last Candlesticks pattern |
Time of formation |
Trend bias |
| Weekly |
Doji |
5 Apr 2009 |
Sideways |
| Daily |
N/A |
N/A |
Down |
The greenback moved in line with our expectation, met renewed selling at 91.28 (we suggested that Kijun-Sen at 91.30 would limit upside) and fell again towards our indicated downside target at 88.32 (last week's low was 88.55), however, as this move from 93.78 is still viewed as a strong correction of the rise from 2009 low of 84.82, downside should be limited to 87.36 support and reckon 86.00 would hold from here, bring rebound later.
On the upside, whilst recovery to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 90.56) is likely, only a weekly close above the Kijun-Sen (now at 91.28) would signal the retreat from 93.78 has possibly ended and bring further gain towards 93.78. Looking ahead, break of 93.78 resistance would bring a stronger retracement of medium term decline towards 95.10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of intermediate decline from 101.45 to 84.82). Once dollar is able to close above the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 95.44) on a weekly basis, this would encourage for further headway to 96.50 but dollar shall falter well below 97.75-79 (50% Fibonacci retracement of medium term downtrend from 110.67 to 84.82 and previous resistance level).
On the daily chart, the greenback resumed recent fall from 93.78 as suggested in our previous update and reached our indicated downside target of Ichimoku cloud bottom at 88.58 (last week's low was 88.55) and although one more fall below said support to 88.32 cannot be ruled out, as this move from 93.78 is still treated as correction of early rise from 2009 low of 84.82, downside should be limited to support at 87.36 and 86.64 (100% projection of 93.78 to 89.14 measuring from 91.28) should remain intact and bring rebound later this week.
On the upside, whilst recovery to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 89.92) is likely, a daily close above 91.16-28 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and previous resistance) is needed to confirm the fall from 93.78 is over, then stronger rebound to 91.88 would follow. Looking ahead, a daily close above this resistance would suggest the rise from 84.82 low has possibly resumed, then gain towards 92.90/00 would be seen but resistance at 93.78 should hold on first testing.
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