USDCAD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Although the greenback continued to move higher from recent low of 1.0784 and although gain to 1.1815 cannot be ruled out, as this move is still viewed as retracement of recent decline from 1.3066 top, upside should be limited to 1.1914-1.1925 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3066 to 1.0784) and price should falter well below 1.2192/94 (previous support turned resistance and the level of 61.8% retracement), then the currency pair shall turn south again from there.

On the downside, below support at 1.1445 would be the first sign that top has possibly been formed but it is necessary to see a weekly close below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.1365) to confirm this view and bring further fall to 1.1100, then test of 1.0942. Looking ahead, only below 1.0942 support would signal the major decline from 1.3066 top has resumed for retest of 1.0784.

On the daily chart, the currency pair extended recent rise from 1.0784 to as high as 1.0725 on Wednesday this week, price looks set to test the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.1750), however, a daily close above there is needed to maintain this bullish view for further gain to 1.1815 resistance, then towards 1.1925 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3066 to 1.0784) which is likely to hold from here and this move is going to be the last leg of the rise from 1.0784 and should be capped at 1.2000.

On the downside, whilst retreat to 1.1500 is quite possible, break of 1.1426-45 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0942-1.1725 and previous support) is needed to signal top has been formed and bring further fall to Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1334), then towards 1.1237-41 (current level of Ichimoku cloud bottom and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0942-1.1725). Looking ahead, a daily close below there would confirm the upmove from 1.0784 has indeed ended and further fall to 1.1000 would follow.