USDJPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis
|
Last Candlesticks pattern |
Time of formation |
Trend bias |
| Weekly |
Doji |
5 Apr 2009 |
Sideways |
| Daily |
Evening star |
8 June 2009 |
Sideways |
Although the greenback recovered after trading above the support at 94.88, we need to see a weekly close above resistance at 97.00 (this would also break above the Tenkan-Sen at 94.80) to confirm further consolidation above support at 93.85 would take place and rebound towards resistance at 98.90 (also the current level of Ichimoku cloud top). However, it is necessary to see a clear break of this level to turn the picture bullish again for test of 99.80-100.00, above there would confirm the rise from 87.10 low has resumed, then a re-visit of 101.45 recent high would follow.
On the downside, if price drops below 94.88 support again, this would revive our early bearish scenario for test of key support at 93.85-94.29 (previous support and current level of Kijun-Sen) is likely, however, only break there would extend the fall from 101.45 for a stronger correction of the rise from 87.10 to 92.58 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 87.10 to 101.45), then to 91.30, being the 100% projection of 101.45 to 93.85 measuring from 98.90 but psychological support at 90.00 should remain intact.
On the daily chart, although dlr retreated after last week's rise to 97.00 and test of 94.88 support cannot be ruled out, we need to see a break of this level to confirm the fall from 98.90 has resumed and extend towards key support at 93.85. Looking ahead, only below this level would end the prolongged consolidation from 101.45 with a downside break for a stronger correction of early rise from 87.10 to 92.58 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 87.10 to 101.45) and later towards 91.30 (100% projection of 101.45 to 93.85 measuring from 98.90) which is likely to hold.
On the upside, whilst a recovery to 96.50 cannot be ruled out, only a rirse above resistance area at 97.00-97.20 would signal the fall from 98.90 has ended and bring test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 97.50. A daily close above there would confirm and bring further rise to 98.55/58 but resistance at 98.90 should hold on first attempt.
|
