Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Sell at 0.7835

AUD/USD - 0.7763

Most recent candlesticks pattern : Hammer
Trend : Down

Tenkan-Sen level : 0.7801
Kijun-Sen level : 0.7882
Ichimoku cloud top : 0.8022
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 0.7985

Original strategy : Sell at 0.7880, Target: 0.7750, Stop: 0.7930

New trading strategy : Sell at 0.7835, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7885

The Australian dollar retreated on the back of falling euro, suggesting the recovery from 0.7723 has ended at 0.7864 and the long awaited final leg of the decline from 0.8039 (or 0.8156) is now in progress for retest of 0.7723, then towards 0.7694/96 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.6771-0.8265 and 1.236 times projection of 0.8156 to 0.7879 measuring from 0.8039), however, downside should be limited to 0.7650 today and price should stay well above 0.7590 (1.618 times projection of 0.8156-0.7879 measuring from 0.8039) and aussie shall stage a strong rebound from there next week.

In view of the above analysis, we are still looking to sell aussie on recovery and one must not get overly bearish on next decline. Above 0.7881/82 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8039 to 0.7723 and current level of the flat ground Kijun-Sen) would risk stronger rebound to 0.7918 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8039 to 0.7723). Looking ahead, In the event aussie rises above 0.7918, this would suggest the entire fall from 0.8156 has possibly ended at 0.7723 and rebound to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.7985, this is also slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8156-0.7723 at 0.7991) would follow.