Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy at 95.45

USD/JPY - 95.99

Most recent candlesticks pattern : Hammer
Trend : Turning up

Tenkan-Sen level : 96.29
Kijun-Sen level : 96.14
Ichimoku cloud top : 96.03
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 95.64

New Strategy : Buy at 95.45, Target: 96.50, Stop: 94.95

Dollar traded narrowly in thin market condition mainly due to holiday in U.S. and near term sideways trading is likely to continue. Although recovery to 96.27/29 (previous support and the current level of Tenkan-Sen) cannot be ruled out, only above 96.50 (approx. the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 97.00 to 95.70) would indicate the fall from 97.00 has already ended at 95.70, otherwise, near term downside risk remains for marginal decline towards 95.31 support. However, as we are keeping our view that low has been formed at 94.88, support at 95.04 should hold and it is still possible to see another rise towards 97.00.

We still prefer to buy dollar on next decline for such a rebound but one must not get overly bullish unless a break of 97.00 takes place. Looking ahead, a break above there would extend the rise from 94.88 to 97.36 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 98.90 to 94.88), once this level is broken, this would confirm the correction from temporary top at 98.90 is over.