AUD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

AUD/JPY – 83.50

AUD/JPY: Wave 5 of (C) has possibly ended at 86.21

Aussie rebounded again after early retreat to 78.20 and gain to 85.00 cannot be ruled out, however, only break of resistance at 86.21 would signal recent upmove from 55.06 (2008 low) is still in progress in wave 5 and extend gain to 87.00 but price should falter below 88.00 and bring correction later.

To recap our preferred count, after falling to 55.06 in 2008, the Australian dollar staged a strong rise from there, indicating the wave [C] from 107.88 ended there and wave [D] rise from there is taking place which is a 3-legged move with (A): 70.52, (B): 55.56 and 5-waver (C) is unfolding with 1: 62.76, 2: 58.09, 3: 80.46, 4: 70.76 and wave 5 has possibly ended at 86.21.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 82.00 and possibly 80.00 is likely, only a daily close below support at 78.20 would suggest rebound from 76.25 is over and break of 76.25 support would revive our previous bearish view and suggest wave 5 has ended at 86.21 earlier, then correction to 75.00 would follow.

On the bigger picture, the decline from multi-decade high of 122.13 (August 1990) to 55.57 (Oct 2000) is labeled as wave [A] with (A): 58.83, (B): 98.94 and (C): 55.57. The subsequent choppy price action suggests a broad sideways consolidation is unfolding, hence entire move from 122.13 could well be developing in some kind of big triangle and the rally from 55.57 to 107.88 is wave [B], followed by wave [C] decline to 55.06. Under this count, the rise from 55.06 is wave [D] to retrace entire fall from 107.88 and gain to 87.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave [C] is likely but 90.27 should limit upside. On the downside, below 64.76 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 55.06 to 80.46) would signal only first leg of [D] has ended and bring weakness to 60.00 before prospect of another upmove.