USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

USD/CAD – 1.0113

USD/CAD – Wave v of c has possibly ended at 1.0206

The breach of indicated support at 1.0206 signals only wave iii has ended there and the subsequent consolidation from there is now labeled as a-b-c wave iv correction which ended at 1.0781 and wave v is now in progress for weakness to 1.0005 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9059 to 1.3066). Below there would extend weakness to 0.9932 (61.8% projection of 1.1725 to 1.0206 measuring from 1.0871), however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9862 (100% projection of 1.1725-1.0591 measuring from 1.0996).

To recap our preferred count is that the A of (B) rally from 0.9059 low (7 Nov 2007) unfolded into an impulsive wave with i:0.9059-1.0380, ii ended at 0.9819, wave iii at 1.3019 followed by a triangle wave iv at 1.2026, then wave v formed a top at 1.3066 and also ended the wave A. Wave B is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii: 1.0206 and wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v is still in progress for one more fall to aforesaid downside targets.

On the upside, whilst a return move back to previous low at 1.0206 is likely, price should falter well below 1.0371 (tentatively minor wave i bottom) and bring such a decline to aforesaid downside targets. Only a daily close above this level would suggest low is possibly formed and bring correction to 1.0500 and then to 1.0680.

Longer term - The selloff from 1.6194 (21 Jan 2002) to 0.9059 (07 Nov 2007) is viewed as (A) wave which is a 5-waver as labeled on the monthly chart as below, the subsequently rally is labeled as (B) with impulsive A leg of (B) ended at 1.3066, wave B of (B) is unfolding which should be limited to 1.0000/05 (76.4% retracement of wave A from 0.9059 to 1.3066) and 0.9800 should hold.