Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9100
AUD/USD – 0.9204
Recent wave: Wave v of wave (v) possibly ended at 0.9407
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy
Buy at 0.9100, Target: 0.9290, Stop: 0.9030
New strategy
Buy at 0.9100, Target: 0.9290, Stop: 0.9030
As aussie retreated after faltering below this week's high of 0.9253, suggesting further consolidation would take place and retracement to 0.9050/60 is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge above this week's low at 0.9096 and bring another rally in wave iii from 0.8578 to 0.9294 (100% projection of wave i) but loss of near term momentum would limit upside and reckon resistance at 0.9331 would hold.
Our preferred count is that the major rise from 0.6007 a wave (B) and the wave C of this 3-legged (B) commenced from 0.6248 which ended at 0.9407. then the fall from 0.9407 to 0.8735 is wave A and the rise from 0.8735 to 0.9331 is re-labeled as a-b-c wave B (as marked in the attached chart). Therefore, the decline from 0.9331 is the wave C with minor wave i ended at 0.9175 and wave ii at 0.9280, wave iii has ended at 0.8781, wave iv ended at 0.8916 with wave v at 0.8578, early breach of indicated resistance at 0.9175 (wave i tough) adds credence to this view and aussie looks set to head towards 0.9331 later.
In view of this, we are still looking to buy aussie on pullback for such rise. A firm break below minor support at 0.9050/55 would risk correction to 0.9000 but 0.8975/80 should hold.
On the bigger picture, aussie's rally after breaking resistance at 0.8265 confirms our bullish count that wave C rally from 0.6248 (2 Feb 2009) has resumed and the wave 5 of this wave C has either ended at 0.9407 or may extend marginally, however, as this move is the last leg of the larger degree wave 3 of C, upside should be limited to 0.9600.To re-cap the rally from 0.6007 to 0.7270 (7 Jan 2009) is tentatively marked as wave A, the retreat to 0.6248 (2 Feb 2009) is seen as wave B and the subsequent upmove is labeled as wave C should extend be capped below 0.9600.
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