EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook Print
Action Insight Archives | Written by | Sep 17 11 05:35 GMT

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

After edging lower to 1.3022 last week, EUR/AUD formed a short term bottom there and recovered to as high as 1.3481. The cross then lost momentum after hitting 55 days EMA. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidative trading first. Above 1.3481 will bring another rise towards .3648/3827 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.3205 minor support will argue that recovery from 1.3022 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for 1.3 psychological level and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2926 are treated as a medium term consolidation pattern, which might still be in progress. Such pattern might extend further in range of 1.2926 and 1.4341. Nevertheless, we'll stay bearish as long as 1.4341 resistance holds and favor an eventual downside break out. Sustained trading below 1.2926 should pave the way to 1.2 psychological level next.

In the longer term picture, EUR/USD's down trend from 2008 high of 2.1127 halted after forming a medium term bottom at 1.2926 with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Rebound attempt since then met strong resistance from 55 weeks EMA, where the cross struggled to sustain above. We'll stay bearish as long as 1.4341 and favor continuation of the downtrend. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.4341 will open up the case of stronger medium term rebound towards 1.6 psychological level, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.2926 at 1.6059.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box