EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF continued to trade in extremely tight range last week and outlook remains unchanged. More downside would be in favor as long as 1.4697 minor resistance holds and would expect EUR/CHF to crawl towards 1.4557 support next. On the upside above 1.4697 minor resistance will suggest that there is no clear direction in EUR/CHF yet. After all, even in case of stronger recovery, we'd expect strong resistance ahead of 1.5 psychological level to limit any rebound attempt.

In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. The test of 1.4577 key support is already done but near term downside should be limited on risk of further intervention from SNB. We'd expect some choppy sideway consolidations below 1.5 psychological level first before down trend finally resume for a test of 1.4315 low. Sustained trading above 1.5 psychological level is needed to invalidate this bearish view.

In the long term picture, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. EUR/CHF's failure to take out 55 weeks EMA suggests that whole fall from 1.6827 is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.4577 support will affirm this case and bring another low below 1.4315 to resume the long term down trend.

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