EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF finally built up some momentum last week and dived to as low as 1.4559 after SNB meeting. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and break of 1.4557 will confirm that whole fall from 1.5880 has resumed and should target 1.4315 low next. On the upside, above 1.4630 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery attempt should be limited by 1.4820 resistance and bring further decline.

In the bigger picture, whole decline form 1.5880 is still in progress and should target a retest of 1.4315 low eventually. Some interim rebounds are possibly due to SNB intervention. But after all, sustained break of 1.5 psychological level is needed to confirm that the cross has bottomed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and we'd still favor more decline even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. EUR/CHF's failure to take out 55 weeks EMA suggests that whole fall from 1.6827 is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.4577 support will affirm this case and bring another low below 1.4315 to resume the long term down trend.

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