EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF's fall accelerated last week and reached as low as 1.4318, just inch above 1.4315 key support. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and sustained trading below 1.4315 will target 1.4 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1.4406 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.4533 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, current decline in EUR/CHF should be resuming larger term down trend from 1.6827. Sustained trading below 1.4135 (2008 low) will confirm this case and should target 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869 next. On the upside, break of 1.4557 spike resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.

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