EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8141 last week but lost momentum and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and we'd seen more consolidations first. but after all, near term outlook remains bearish with 0.8281 resistance intact. Fall from 0.8530 is still in favor to continue and below 0.8141 will target 0.8067 and then 0.8 psychological level. However, note that decisive break of 0.8281 resistance will indicate that fall from 0.8530 is finished and will turn outlook bullish for 0.8530 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 2008 high 0.9799 is viewed as a three wave correction from to the larger up trend and is still in progress for 100% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8399 from 0.9410 at 0.8010 and below. Though, such correction is expected to conclude inside 0.7693/8186 support zone and hence, focus will be on reversal signal on next fall. On the upside, break of 0.8530 resistance will suggest that EUR/GBP has possibly bottomed already and will turn outlook bullish for 0.9410 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, correction from 0.9799 is expected to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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