EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.68; (P) 154.73; (R1) 156.00; More.

EUR/JPY's fall from 156.84 extended further to as low as 152.05 today and is now pressing near term support of 152.00. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 155.33 minor resistance holds. Further break of 152.00 support will confirm that correction from 147.03 has completed at 156.84. In such case, retest of 147.03 low should be seen. On the upside, above 155.33 will turn intraday outlook neutral first.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading below the long term rising channel added strong evidence that whole up trend from 88.97 (00 low) has completed, with bearish divergence conditions in weekly MACD and RSI and with monthly MACD remains below signal line. Break of 149.27 provides further credence too. Hence, while some corrective rebound may still be in progress in near term, the fall from 169.96 is expected to extend further to 38.2% retracement of 88.97 to 169.96 at 139.02 first after completing the correction. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 169.96 to 147.03 at 161.20 is needed to indicate fall from 169.96 has completed and invalidate the above view. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bearish.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box