EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.18; (P) 133.23; (R1) 133.98; More.

EUR/JPY falls further to as low as 131.41 today so far and is now pressing key medium term trend line support. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 133.22 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below the trend line support will be an important indication of medium term reversal and should target bring deeper fall to next key support level at 124.35. On the upside, above 133.22 will turn intraday outlook neutral first and bring consolidation. But break of 135.15 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 139.21 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 112.10 is treated as part of the consolidation in the larger down trend form 08 high of 169.96 only. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, such rise is tentatively treated as completed at 139.21 already. Break of mentioned trend line support from 112.10 will add much credence to this case. Further break of 124.35 will confirm and bring retest of 112.10 low next. Meanwhile, note that another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment. But upside should be limited by resistance zone of 50% retracement of 169.96 to 112.10 at 141.03 and 61.8% retracement at 147.85 and finally bring reversal.

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