EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.30; (P) 132.61; (R1) 133.40; More.

EUR/JPY's fall resumes after brief recovery and dives to as low as 130.43 so far today. The break of 131.41 support confirms that whole decline from 139.21 has resumed and solidifies that case of medium term reversal. Further fall is now expected to 100% projection of 139.21 to 131.41 from 136.87 at 129.07 first and break will target next key support level of 124.35 (161.8% projection at 124.25). On the upside, while some recovery might be seen in between, break of 133.89 resistance is needed to be the first signal the EUR/JPY has bottomed out. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bearish now.

In the bigger picture, rise from 112.10 is treated as part of the consolidation in the larger down trend form 08 high of 169.96 only. Break of the medium term trend line support solidifies the case that such medium term rebound has completed at 139.21 already, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. Further break of 124.35 support will confirm this case and argue that the down trend from 169.96 is resuming for a retest of 112.10 low next. On the upside, above 136.87 resistance is needed to revive the case that such medium term rise from 112.10 is still in progress.

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