EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

After brief retreat to 158.24, EUR/JPY's rally from 151.71 resumed and extended sharply higher to 164.67 to close the week strongly. As discussed before, firm break of 161.38 resistance confirms that fall from 167.72 has already completed. From a short term angle, initial bias remains ont he upside this week as long as 162.67 minor support holds. Further rally is expected to be seen towards upper end of medium term range at 168.93. On the downside, below 162.67 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But break of 158.24 is need to indicate rise from 151.71 has completed. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor after pull back.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY turned into sideway consolidation after medium term up trend was limited at 168.93. It's unclear whether such consolidation has completed at 151.71 already and hence firm break of 168.93 high is needed to confirm resumption of the long term up trend. Meanwhile, on the downside, below 158.24 will suggest that such consolidation is going to extend further before completion.

Note EUR/JPY is still staying inside long term rising channel (support at 155.64). The long term up trend from 88.97 (00 low) is probably still in force. Nevertheless, more choppy trading should be seen with EUR/JPY still staying inside range of 149.27 and 168.93 before firm break above this 168.93 high.

In the longer term picture, EUR/JPY is still staying inside long term rising channel (support at 155.64). The long term up trend from 88.97 (00 low) is probably still in force. Nevertheless, more choppy trading could be seen with EUR/JPY still staying inside range of 149.27 and 168.93 before firm break above this 168.93 high. Though, on resumption, the long term up trend is expected to target next important cluster resistance at 188.22 (50% retracement of 285.56 (79 high) to 88.97 (00 low) at 187.26). Meanwhile, firm break of 149.27 low will argue that the whole up trend form 88.97 (00 low) has completed. In such case, much deeper medium term decline would be seen to support zone of 124.15 and 140.92 first.

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