EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5358; (P) 1.5427; (R1) 1.5494; More

EUR/USD recovers mildly after fall from 1.6019 reached as low as 1.5360, touching mentioned 1.5342/66 cluster support zone. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.5498 minor resistance holds, Sustained trading below 1.5342 will set the stage for deeper fall to next short term target of 1.4966 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.4309 to 1.6019 at 1.4962) and probably below. On the upside, above 1.5498 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But another fall is still expected as long as recovery is limited by 1.5644 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, EUR/USD's rise from 1.4309 should have completed at 1.6019 with a diagonal triangle pattern that started at 1.5342 and with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. Firm break of 1.5342 support, which will also have EUR/USD sustaining below 55 days EMA (now at 1.5488) too, will confirm this case and deeper decline should then be seen to 1.4309 and 1.4966 support zone. However, strong rebound from here , followed by break of 1.5644 resistance, will suggest that price actions from 1.6019 is probably just developing into another sideway consolidation. But still, risk is on the downside before sustained break of 1.6019 high.

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