EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5768; (P) 1.5858; (R1) 1.5915; More

EUR/USD's outlook remains unchanged. Retreat from 1.6038 is still in progress and further fall could be seen. But another rise is still expected as long as pull back is contained above 1.5611 support. Above 1.5949 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6038 high. As discussed before, sustained trading above 1.6000/19 resistance zone will confirm that the medium term up trend has resumed and will target 100% projection of 1.5302 to 1.5908 from 1.5611 at 1.6217 first.

In the bigger picture, medium term consolidation from 1.6019 should have completed at 1.5302 already. Decisive break of 1.6019 record high will confirm that medium term up trend has resumed and bring rise to 61.8% projection of 1.4309 to 1.6019 from 1.5284 at 1.6341 first. Also, rise from 1.1639 is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and could still extend to 100% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.7084. On the downside, beak of 1.5611 is needed to be the signal that a short term top is formed. Otherwise, further rally is still expected even in case of deep pull back.

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