EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3808; (P) 1.3882; (R1) 1.3937; More

EUR/USD recovers well ahead of 1.3747 support and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. It remains to be confirmed if fall from 1.4337 is still in progress. On the downside, below 1.3747 will confirm that such decline has resumed and should then target trend line support (now at 1.3404) next. On the upside, however, above 1.4011 will flip intraday bias back to the upside and argue that fall from 1.4337 has indeed completed at 1.3747 already. The three wave structure will in turn dampen the bearish view that EUR/USD has topped out at 1.4337 and will bring another rally to extend whole rise from 1.2884. Nevertheless, in such case, we'll continue to focus on reversal signal as EUR/USD meets trend line resistance (now at 1.4413).

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2456 is treated as the third leg of the medium term consolidation pattern that started at 1.2329 (first leg completed at 1.4719, second at 1.2456). Considering that 100% projection of 1.2456 to 1.3737 from 1.2884 at 1.4165 was already met and daily MACD is breaking its own trend line, such rise from 1.2456 is tentatively treated as completed at 1.4337. Another fall below last week's low of 1.3747 will add much credence to this case and target trend line support (now at 1.3404) first. Break there will confirm and bring retest of 1.2456/2884 support zone. Though, in such case, as we're favoring that it's developing into triangle consolidation, downside should be contained by 1.2456/2884 support zone and bring one more rise to complete the consolidation.

On the upside, above 1.4011 will delay the bearish case and indicate that rise from 1.2456 is still in progress. Nevertheless, as this rise is still treated as part of the medium term consolidation, it should be limited by 1.4719/4867 resistance zone. Hence, upside potential should be limited and focus will still be on reversal signal in case of another rise.

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