EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2614; (P) 1.2745 (R1) 1.2813; More.

EUR/USD's recovery from 1.2587 should have completed at 1.2916 already, just ahead of 1.2921 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the downside and break of 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. On the upside, above 1.2772 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But with 1.2921 resistance intact, fall from 1.3330 is still expected to continue. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.

In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will pave the wave to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).

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